Parlays: Do Pro Sports Bettors Actually Use Them?

Hey guys! Let's dive into the world of sports betting and tackle a question that's been on many minds: Do professional sports bettors actually use parlays? To understand this, we first need to grasp what a parlay bet is and then compare it to the strategies employed by those who bet for a living. Are parlays a sucker bet, or do they have a place in the arsenal of a sharp sports bettor? Let's get right into it.

What Exactly is a Parlay Bet?

Before we explore whether professional bettors engage with parlays, let's define what a parlay bet entails. A parlay is a single bet that links together two or more individual wagers. To win a parlay, every bet within the parlay must win. If even one bet loses, the entire parlay loses. The appeal of a parlay lies in its potential for high payouts, as the odds of each individual bet are multiplied together. For example, if you combine three bets each with odds of +100 (even money), the parlay odds might be around +700 or higher, meaning a $100 bet could win $700.

The increased payout comes with significantly higher risk. Each leg of the parlay has to be successful, making it far more difficult to win than a single straight bet. Common parlays involve combinations of point spreads, moneylines, and totals (over/under) from different games or even different sports. The allure of turning a small stake into a significant profit is what draws many casual bettors to parlays. However, the crucial question remains: Does this strategy align with the approach of professional sports bettors?

The Mindset of a Professional Sports Bettor

To really understand whether pros use parlays, you need to get inside their heads. Professional sports bettors approach wagering as an investment, focusing on long-term profitability rather than quick wins. They prioritize finding value in the odds, employing sophisticated strategies, and maintaining strict bankroll management. Their goal is to achieve a positive expected value (+EV) on each bet they place. This means they only bet when they believe the odds offered by the sportsbook are higher than the actual probability of the event occurring.

Here's a breakdown of what typically drives a professional bettor:

Value Betting: Identifying discrepancies between the true probability of an outcome and the offered odds.
Statistical Analysis: Using data, trends, and algorithms to make informed predictions.
Risk Management: Carefully managing their bankroll to withstand losing streaks and maximize long-term gains.
Discipline: Sticking to their strategy and avoiding emotional or impulsive bets.

Given these principles, it's clear that professional bettors are calculated and methodical. They avoid unnecessary risks and focus on bets that offer the best chance of a positive return over time. This contrasts sharply with the higher-risk, higher-reward nature of parlay bets.

Do Professional Bettors Use Parlays? The Real Answer.

Now, let's address the million-dollar question: Do professional sports bettors use parlays? The general consensus is that parlays are not a primary strategy for most professional bettors. However, this doesn't mean they are completely avoided. The key lies in understanding when and why a professional might consider a parlay.

Here are a few scenarios where a professional bettor might include a parlay in their betting strategy:

Correlated Parlays: These involve combining bets that are statistically correlated. For example, betting on a strong favorite to win and also betting the over on the total points. If the favorite is likely to win big, the total score is also likely to be higher. These types of parlays can offer a slight edge.
Free Bet Opportunities: Many sportsbooks offer promotions such as free bets or bonus bets. Professionals might use these free bets on parlays to take a shot at a larger payout without risking their own capital.
Small Bankroll Building: A bettor with a very small bankroll might use low-stake parlays as a way to try and quickly increase their funds. However, this is more of a high-risk, high-reward strategy and not a sustainable long-term approach.
Hedge Strategies: In some rare cases, a parlay might be used as part of a more complex hedging strategy to reduce overall risk across multiple bets.

However, it's crucial to understand that these situations are exceptions rather than the rule. For the vast majority of their betting activity, professional bettors stick to single bets where they can more accurately assess the value and manage their risk. They understand that the increased payout of a parlay rarely compensates for the increased risk involved.

Why Parlays Are Generally Avoided

There are several key reasons why professional bettors typically avoid parlays:

Lower Expected Value (-EV): Parlays generally have a lower expected value compared to single bets. The sportsbook's edge is magnified with each additional leg added to the parlay.
Increased Risk: The more bets included in a parlay, the higher the risk of losing the entire wager. Professionals prefer to manage risk by focusing on individual bets with a positive expected value.
Difficulty in Assessing Value: It's harder to accurately assess the value of each leg in a parlay and to determine if the combined odds offer a true advantage.
Limited Control: Once a parlay is placed, the bettor has no control over the outcome of the individual games or events. Professionals prefer to have more control over their bets and the ability to adjust their strategies as needed.

Instead of parlays, professional bettors focus on placing individual bets with a positive expected value. They meticulously research each bet, analyze the data, and manage their risk to maximize their long-term profits. This disciplined approach is what separates them from casual bettors who are often drawn to the allure of high-payout parlays.

Practical Examples and Scenarios

Let's consider a couple of practical examples to illustrate why professionals often steer clear of parlays:

Scenario 1: The Uncorrelated Parlay

Imagine a casual bettor places a four-leg parlay:

Team A to win their soccer match.
Team B to cover the spread in their basketball game.
Over 45.5 points in a football game.
A golfer to win a tournament.

These events are entirely unrelated. The outcome of one has no impact on the others. While the payout for this parlay might be tempting, the probability of all four events occurring is relatively low. A professional bettor would likely analyze each event separately, placing individual bets on the ones where they find the most value.

Scenario 2: The Correlated Parlay (Use with Caution)

Now, consider a slightly more strategic approach with a correlated parlay:

Team C, a strong favorite, to win their hockey game.
Over 5.5 goals in the same hockey game.

In this case, there is a correlation. If Team C is likely to win by a significant margin, the game is also more likely to have a higher total score. A professional bettor might consider this type of parlay, but only after carefully analyzing the probabilities and determining if the combined odds offer sufficient value.

In both scenarios, the professional bettor's decision-making process is driven by data, analysis, and a focus on expected value. They avoid the temptation of high payouts without a solid foundation of statistical advantage.

Bankroll Management and Parlays

One of the most crucial aspects of professional sports betting is bankroll management. Professionals carefully allocate their funds, typically risking only 1-5% of their bankroll on any single bet. This disciplined approach helps them weather losing streaks and protect their capital.

Parlays can be particularly risky from a bankroll management perspective. Because the probability of winning a parlay is lower than winning a single bet, placing a significant portion of your bankroll on a parlay can quickly deplete your funds. Professionals understand this risk and generally avoid allocating a substantial amount of their bankroll to parlay bets.

Instead, they focus on making consistent, smaller bets with a positive expected value. This allows them to gradually grow their bankroll over time while minimizing the risk of significant losses. Proper bankroll management is a cornerstone of long-term success in sports betting, and parlays often conflict with this principle.